Metropolis Movers – A 2018 Review

Metropolis ran over 6,500 business leads on ‘office movers’ in 2018. If all reported moves were added together the total would exceed 100 million sq ft of office searches and transactions, researched by Metropolis’ unique market-led intelligence research team, during the year.

London was the largest region with 2,850 business leads during the year, but there were also strong showings from the South East (710), North West (650), Yorkshire (525), Scotland (441). Financial services, IT and business services were the largest business sectors planning relocations or agreeing moves during the year.

The relocation leads geographically covered the whole UK and provided details of the size of the office occupier, company likely move dates, a description of the reasons for the move, its business sector and full contact details including an address for written inquiries, at least one telephone number and in most cases an email address. Some of the largest planned moves and top picks amongst the 2018 leads, included those on occupiers Facebook (new London HQ), AstraZeneca (Cambridge base), Chinese Embassy (new London HQ), Barclays Bank (Manchester and Glasgow campuses), WPP (new London base), Jane Street Capital, McCann Worldgroup and many, many more.

The 2018 leads included nearly 1,800 ‘identified requirements’, including 1,100 in London. Which means that the company confirmed to researchers that it has current or future plans to search for alternative office space. Of these 1,800 searches, nearly 1,200 were newly posted office searches, not previously notified to clients.

The research over the year also included 1,900 ‘potential movers.’ These were mainly longer-term leads on occupiers, considering a future relocation, but the occupier has yet to make a final decision on whether to search.

Most of the remaining stories covered companies that have just signed for new office space and have set a move date, including some large pre-lets and companies inviting tenders for fit-out contracts. The shortest planned move date is just over a month away, whilst the longest was late 2022.

Research by Metropolis during the year, concluded that a conservative estimate of ‘live’ business tender opportunities on the database in recent months, exceeded £1bn of business.

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Manchester Offices and the Tech Sector

Knight Frank has recently published a report on Manchester’s  office market and the impact of the technology sector.

The consultant says that the city has evolved a significant tech market. Take-up within the Manchester market over the last five years (2013-17) shows that there were some 144 leasing transactions from occupiers within the IT & Telecoms sector. These deals accounted for more than 770,000 sq ft of office space – that is a volume of space greater than total 2017 take-up across all sectors in 6 of the 10 regional centres that Knight Frank monitor.

Notable transactions include: Amazon, Bet 365, Booking.com and Jaguar Land Rover, Recent research from Tech Nation, reveals that there are in excess of 30,000 digital jobs within the Manchester economy – which on generous space allocations of 1:8 is the equivalent to some 2.5 million sq ft of office space. These firms have a turnover of some £3.2bn – so they are significant contributors to the local and regional economy. The research also shows that Manchester has a vibrant digital eco-system which led to the birth of more than 450 new digital businesses in 2016. When those businesses are formed they have great growth prospects.

A third of Tech Nation’s Northern Tech 100 – that is the fastest growing tech companies in the North of England – are based in Manchester and have an average growth rate of 49% per annum. Four of the companies found on the list have recently let or acquired a total of 80,000 sq ft with a further 17,500 sq ft under offer at the time of writing.

Knight Frank are also aware of active requirements totalling around 100,000 sq ft from companies within the list. Microsoft, for example, have recently taken 100 desks within Bruntwood’s Neo Building
while both Amazon and Alphabet have a small presence in the city.

Over the same 5 year period there were 406 leasing transactions from companies across the 5 tech sub-sectors. They absorbed 1.4 million sq ft of office space over this time.

Knight Frank conclude that as Amazon and the like invest in the healthcare and insurance sectors, for example, the market will see space solutions that were not so long ago regarded as the exclusive domain of a few select, fast-growth tech companies becoming a reality for the many.

Metropolis Research is monitoring around 20 requirements in the Manchester market and 80 potential movers. Some 20% of companies are in the technology sector.

Pre-lets on the rise

JLL’s recent London office report reveals that London office take-up reached 2.4 million sq ft in Q1 (Metropolis registered 3m sq ft), lower than the quarterly average but ahead of both the equivalent period in 2017 and the 10 year average for the first quarter.

JLL say that The West End was the strongest performing market, with take-up reaching 932,000 sq ft, the strongest Q1 for three years. City leasing volumes were robust at 1.3 million sq ft, marginally ahead of the equivalent period in 2017.

Pre-letting was a major feature of the market, accounting for nearly a third of quarterly take-up. JLL say that this will remain a feature of the market throughout the year with 45% of the 3.5 million sq ft currently under offer.

Metropolis saw around 40% of office space let being accounted for by pre-lets in the first months of 2018.

Across central London development completions have continued to be quickly absorbed, with 70% of quarterly completions pre-leased or let shortly after completion.

In The City, banking and finance sectors were most active with a 28% share of take-up, buoyed by the largest transaction of the quarter, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Europe’s pre-let of 161,000 sq ft at 100 Liverpool Street, EC2. The service industries and professional services sectors were also prominent, accounting for 27% and 25% of quarterly take-up respectively, including major transactions to Sidley Austin LLP, Charles Taylor and Prudential.

In the West End, The TMT and services sectors had the largest share of quarterly take-up with 33% and 25% respectively. Within the services sector, the majority of take-up (63%) involved flexible office providers indicating that this sector is continuing to expand.

To conclude, JLL say that business sentiment remains robust and employment continues to rise strongly

Scottish Offices 2018

Lambert Smith Hampton, the property adviser, has just published its review of the Scottish office market in 2017 and makes its predictions for 2018.

LSH say that for half of office movers in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen (57% of occupiers), relocation was more likely to be prompted by a lease expiry or break option, a pattern that underlines the importance of market churn over inward moves from companies based outside Scotland.

Notable transactions triggered by lease events included State Street Bank and Trust Company (65,628 sq ft at Lauriston Place, Edinburgh), the Scottish Prison Service (51,009 sq ft at
Redheughs Rigg, Edinburgh) and Balfour Beatty (43,568 sq ft at Maxim 7, Glasgow).

Expansion was the trigger for 26% of relocations, indicating ongoing confidence among occupiers. Expansion also played a part in a number of deals in Aberdeen despite the dip in oil prices, albeit none of these involved occupiers in the energy sector. Key deals spurred by expansion included the University of West Scotland (225,000 sq ft), Computershare (41,395 sq ft) and the Student Loans Company (40,853 sq ft). Common among these occupiers was a desire for better quality office space or a more effective working environment.

In Edinburgh, location was behind the vast majority of relocation choices. In Glasgow, location accounted for less than half of deals. In some instances, occupiers were able to expand at the current base. For
example, Wescot Credit Services acquired an additional 10,567 sq ft at 38 Cadogan Street, Glasgow while Actavo acquired a further 10,685 sq ft at Alexandra Parade, Citypark, Glasgow.

Better quality office space was cited as the key driver of choice in 14% of deals, a notable example being Mott MacDonald’s acquisition of 34,515 sq ft of grade A space at St Vincent Plaza in Glasgow. Improved efficiency was the key driver of choice for 12% of deals, the largest being ST Microelectronics acquisition of 21,530 sq ft of grade A space at Tanfield, Edinburgh.

Looking ahead, to the end of 2020, Scotland’s five largest town’s and cities possess almost 450 known lease events in excess of 5,000 sq ft. 2018 will see 145 lease expiries and breaks above 5,000 sq ft across the
key markets, amounting to just over 2.1m sq ft of potential demand.

Metropolis is currently monitoring over 50 Scottish companies with plans to move in 2018 and over 100 occupiers coming up to decisions on leases in Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh.

Central London office lettings in December and 2017 Summary

Central London office lettings in December 2017 reached a healthy 1.1m sq ft of deals from 40 mid-large size transactions (5,000 sq ft+) during the month. The December figure slightly outperforms the current monthly average of 1m sq ft . Annual London take-up reached 12.2m sq ft, just above the 2016 figure.

December was characterised by 13 office deals over 20,000 sq ft, which included Turner Broadcasting’s 100,000 sq ft letting at 160 Old Street, EC1; Penguin’s 83,000 sq ft letting at Embassy Gardens, SW8; Vitol took 48,000 sq ft at Nova, SW1 and Enstar took 32,000 sq ft at Creechurch Place, EC3.

Media topped the table of lettings by sector, underpinned by Turner and Penguin deals. This was followed by IT services with the large deals involving Google and Dell.  Insurance and business services also performed well, helped by the lettings to Enstar and XBridge. Office deals ‘under offer’ in central London fell slightly to 3m sq ft but pending deal volumes are healthy in nearly all sub-markets.

By area, the City accounted for 39pc of the office floorspace let in December at 419,000 sq ft. The West End saw 184,000 sq ft of take-up, underpinned by Vitol. Midtown contributed 236,000 sq ft of lettings, plus 90,000 sq ft of Docklands deals. Current London office demand is calculated to be around 3m sq ft in the City and 2.7m sq ft in the West End.

The volume of grade A (newly built or refurbished office space) let during the month reached 558,000 sq ft (52% of the monthly total), as transactions for new space resumed their recent strong showing.

Metropolis research is currently monitoring 640 ‘live’ London requirements, with deals for space of up to 1.8m sq ft due to sign in the next few months.

Cityoffices is shortly to publish its annual review of the planning pipeline in London. Further details of planning applications and consents, with scheme by scheme detail are listed on the Cityoffices.net website. Details on the report and the Cityoffices database from Andy King at andy@metroinfo.co.uk

2017 Review

The 12.2m sq ft of central London take-up recorded in 2017 (deals 5,000 sq ft and above) was slightly above the 11.9m sq ft recorded in 2016.

The largest deals were lettings to Deutsche Bank, Dentsu Aegis, then 3 lettings to WeWork

The serviced office sector took nearly 2m sq ft of offices in 2017. WeWork let over 1.24m sq ft (10%) of the total 2017 take-up

As well as Business services, Financial services took 1.9m sq ft, IT sector took 1.5m sq ft, Media took 1.2m sq ft and Professional 1.1m sq ft

The City accounted for 5.1m sq ft, Midtown 2.4m sq ft, West End was 3.1m sq ft

Plans for 2018

Happy New Year to all Metropolis Blog readers.

We plan to bring all subscribers another 6000+ business leads on companies searching for offices, requesting tenders and agreeing office moves in 2018. Far greater, better informed and deeper coverage than any other provider. All leads include details of contacts, timescales and company intentions. Subscriptions for nearly every budget.

For subscription details email simon@metroinfo.co.uk